原文标题：Holiday travelEnjoy it while it lastsWill demand for sunny getaways wane as the economy sours?假日旅行及时行乐经济不景气，度假需求会减弱吗？How long will the travel boom last?旅行热潮还能持续多久？[Paragraph 1]

REVENGE HOLIDAYS are in full swingand the travel industry is cashing in.

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报复性度假火如荼地，旅游业日进斗金。

After a rocky few years, the urge to splurge on airline tickets and hotels is set to bring in bumper earnings.

经过几年的波折后，蜂拥而至的机票和酒店预订将带来丰厚的收入。

Tour operators are inundated with bookings; hotel chains are raking in record profits.

大量订单涌入旅游运营商；连锁酒店的利润创新高。

EasyJet has raised its earnings forecasts twice this year; IAG and Ryanair have both returned to profit for the first time since the start of the pandemic, and Singapore Airlines is handing out some of its record profits as bonuses worth eight months’ salary.

英国易捷航空今年已两次上调盈利预期；IAG和瑞安航空自疫情以来首次恢复盈利；新加坡航空公司正打算从利润里拿出一部分钱来发奖金，这相当于8个月的薪水。

With air fares rising faster than inflation, global airline bosses now expect $9.8bn in net income this year, more than double the amount initially forecast, according to the International Air Transport Association, an industry body.

据行业机构“国际航空运输协会”称，由于机票价格上涨速度快于通货膨胀，全球航空公司的老板们现在预计今年的净收入为98亿美元，是最初预测的两倍多。

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The holiday boom has lifted the outlook for international travel.

旅行热潮提振了国际旅游的前景。

Worldwide tourist arrivals this year are expected to reach up to 95% of pre-pandemic levels, up from 63% in 2022, estimates the UN’s World Tourism Organisation.

据联合国世界旅游组织估计，今年全球游客人数预计将达到疫情前水平的95%，高于2022年的63%。

Share prices of travel companies, which tumbled in early 2022 amid fears of rising inflation and a looming recession, are soaring again (see chart).

因人们担心通胀上升和经济衰退，旅游公司的股价在2022年初暴跌，现在又开始回升（见图）。

High prices have not deterred sunseekersso far.“People are prioritising travel over other discretionaryspending,” says David Goodger of Oxford Economics, a consultancy.

到目前为止，高价并没有吓退旅行者。咨询机构“牛津经济研究院”的大卫·古德格说： “人们将旅行支出置于其他可自由支配的开销之上。”

Still flush with cash saved during lockdowns, many are splashing outon holidays, even as they trim spending on clothes or dining out.许多人在疫情期间仍攒了很多钱，他们在旅行时大肆消费，尽管他们减少了衣服或外出就餐的消费。

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A few factors will determine how long the good times roll on for.

好日子能持续多久，取决于这几个因素。

Some have to do with the industry’s supply side: shortages of airport staff, soaring jet-fuel costs and crumbling IT systems, whichbuckledunder the weight of demand last year, leading to hours-long flight delays or cancellations at short notice.

其中一些因素与行业的供应方有关：机场工作人员短缺，飞机燃料成本飙升，IT系统问题，这些都在去年的需求重压下崩溃，导致数小时的航班延误或临时取消。

A quarter of all flights in America were scrapped or delayed last summer.

去年夏天，美国1/4的航班被取消或延误。

Southwest Airlines estimates that the cancellation of nearly 17,000 flights in December led it to incur around $800m in losses.西南航空公司估计，12月份取消了近17000次航班，导致了约8亿美元的经济损失。

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A bigger question concerns demand. After a glorious summer, appetite for holidays could come crashing down as fast as it has risen.

一个更大的问题涉及需求。经过一个精彩的夏日度假之后，人们对假期的渴望度可能会迅速下降，飙升速度有多快，下降速度就有多快。

Although America’s Federal Reserve has paused interest-rate rises, it is expected to lift rates again in coming months.

尽管美国联邦储备委员会已经暂停了加息，但预计在未来几个月内会再次加息。

As the Fed and other central banks in rich countries keep fighting stubborn inflation, holidaymakers may eventually throw in the beach towel. 由于美联储和其他发达国家的央行与顽固通货膨胀之间的持续斗争，度假者最终可能会放弃旅行。

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Chinese tourists, the third-biggest group after Americans and Germans in 2019, according to Oxford Economics, may not pick up the slack.

根据牛津经济研究院的数据，2019年，中国游客是仅次于美国人和德国人的第三大旅行群体，也可能于事无补。

Since covid in China were eased last year, nearby destinations such as Macau and Thailand have proved popular. Yet Chinese enthusiasm for far-flung spots remains tepid.

自去年中国疫情结束以来，事实表明，澳门和泰国等附近旅游目的地很受欢迎。然而，中国人对远地方的旅游热情仍然不高。

Accor, a hotel giant, estimates that around three-quarters of Chinese travellers this year will opt for “staycations” instead. 酒店业巨头“雅高”估计，今年约有3/4的中国游客将选择 "不出城度假 "。

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Alullin holidaymaking would be bad news for a heavily indebted industry already facing escalating expenses and recovering from past losses.

度假活动的停滞将对这个负债累累的行业造成不利影响，该行业已面临不断上升的开支成本，此时亟需从过去的损失中恢复活力。

Airlines alone lost $138bn in 2020. Moody’s, a credit-rating agency, expects their labour costs to increase by nearly a fifth this year.

仅航空公司在2020年就损失了1380亿美元。信用评级机构“穆迪”预计，今年航空劳动力成本将增加1/5左右。

Short-staffed hotels are struggling to fill positions despite raising wages. In Britain, wage bills are 15% higher than before the pandemic.

尽管提高了工资，但人手不足的酒店仍然难以招到员工。在英国，现在的工资比疫情前高了15%。

After a years-long holiday, day-to-day economic reality may be setting in for the travel industry. 经过数年“长假”之后，旅游业可能面临日常经济问题。

（恭喜读完，本篇英语词汇量564左右）原文出自：2023年6月17日《The Economist》Business版块

精读笔记来源于：自由英语之路

本文翻译整理: Irene

本文编辑校对: Irene仅供个人英语学习交流使用。

【补充资料】（来自于网络）Staycation是由“stay”（停留）和“vacation”（假期）两个词组合而成的，意为“不出城度假”“居家度假”，指的是在自己的家中度过，或者是在附近的酒店、度假村或者周边城市的短暂旅行。这是一种越来越流行的旅行方式，尤其是在现代生活节奏快、压力大的城市生活中。它可以省钱、省时、减少旅行压力和减少对环境的影响，人们可以充分利用自己所在地的资源，探索周边地区的文化、历史和自然景观，可以让人们远离繁忙的工作和日常生活压力，享受轻松的假期。日常经济现实day-to-day economic reality是指人们在日常生活中所面对的经济状况和问题。这包括个人收入和支出、物价水平、就业情况、房地产市场、消费习惯等方面。日常经济现实反映了一个国家或地区的经济状况和人民的生活水平。人们通常会根据日常经济现实来做出消费决策、规划个人财务，并适应和应对经济变化带来的影响。【重点句子】（3个）REVENGE HOLIDAYS are in full swing and the travel industry is cashing in.报复性度假火如荼地，旅游业日进斗金。A few factors will determine how long the good times roll on for.好日子能持续多久，取决于这几个因素。A lull in holidaymaking would be bad news for a heavily indebted industry already facing escalating expenses and recovering from past losses.度假活动的停滞将对这个负债累累的行业造成不利影响，该行业已面临不断上升的开支成本，此时亟需从过去的损失中恢复活力。

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